Watching 2024 with hope and fear.
Now that "affordable housing" is peaking as a campaign issue, plenty of ideas are being offered to "solve the problem." At 6 Steps, RHINO is trying to sort out what makes sense as a housing strategy for the US...and what's just 'an idea'.
Six Steps was created three years ago as a sounding board for emerging national housing policies that can address (maybe even prevent) the next housing crisis. Recalling the 2008 and 2020 housing-based recessions, Six Steps seeks to avoid the "more of the same" responses to the next crisis. Because RHINO's subscribers are mostly local (metro, rural, statewide) advocates, Six Steps focuses on national policies that can be managed locally or local policies that can be models for national adoption. Apologies for cross posting.
Obama told the UN: "Too often...decision-makers have forgotten that democracy needs to be driven by civic engagement from the bottom up, not governance by experts from the top down."
What if Trump wins and transformational housing policy change is off the table for 4 more years. In that case build the transformative policy platform on a strong tenant base.
It may be that Trump wins and there's another housing-driven recession. Have some emergency programs queued up to propose and promote. For example: in the 2020 recession, advocates could have proposed a Universal Voucher Program instead of mucking around with moratoriums and landlord rental assistance.
July 4, 2024 NYT. Apartments Could Be the Next Real Estate Business to Struggle. "Owners of some rental buildings are starting to struggle because of rising interest rates and waning demand in some once booming Sun Belt cities." (Will office conversion movement flood the multifamily housing market, drive down rents and force foreclosures?)
If Trump wins, don't move to New Zealand.
Build the platform (think tanks>advocates) and build the base (tenants>activists>advocates)
Build innovative pilot projects locally.
Work state-by-state on tenants rights like SOI, Just Cause, and Right to Organize.
If Trump wins, use crisis as a springboard for transformational change.
new coalitions, new advocacy partners "Babies like stable housing"
selective transformative litigation (eg. Brown v. Board)
tranformative legislation (change the policy paradigm)
Reference: The disruption nexus
If Trump wins, avoid small ball. Fighting over crumbs is a silly waste of time unless the crumbs are existential.
When Change is in the air, open all the windows
April 11, 2024. NYT. 2024, Meet 1892, Your Doppelgänger. "But as we are seeing again, it is possible for an election to make the public simultaneously fighting mad and bored to tears. The repeated, deadening matchups of Cleveland and Harrison in 1888 and 1892 did just that. They may be the best parallel for what is coming with a second Biden-Trump race. There are other rematches in American presidential history, but 1892 was the only time a sitting president who had lost re-election ran four years later against his vanquisher and won. That weird race has a message for all those planning to hit snooze on the coming campaign: Great political change can unfold when the system seems woefully stalled." footnote: by the time you get the Kaisch memo, influencing the change is harder.
Roman Krznaric writes: "Here it is useful to make a distinction between optimism and hope. We can think of optimism as a glass-half-full attitude that everything will be fine despite the evidence. I’m far from optimistic. [ ] On the other hand, I am a believer in radical hope, by which I mean recognising that the chances of success may be slim but still being driven to act by the values and vision you are rooted in. Time and again, humankind has risen up collectively, often against the odds, to tackle shared problems and overcome crises. The challenge we face as a civilisation is to draw on history for tomorrow, and turn radical hope into action."
After high hopes for a progressive Congress were washed up on the beach of Lake SineManchin, all kinds of housing "planners" have shifted their attention to tinkering with the current housing programs. For housing advocates who lived thru periods of policy stagnation under Presidents Clinton ("school uniforms") and Obama ("the beer summit"), the prospect of another round of "small ball policies seems unproductive. In the arena of "affordable housing."
Except for "emergency interventions, the Administration Congress missed the opportunity presented by the Pandemic Recession. Biden's latest policy statement hands the keys housing policy reform to the same crowd that "masterminded" the last two housing recoveries from the 2008 and 2020: the Federal Reserve, Fannie and Freddie, and the homebuilders. RHINO calls them the FIRED lobby: Finance, Investor, Real Estate and Developers.
Housing advocates' next bite at the housing policy apple won't come before 2025, the year after the next presidential election. To make progress in 2025, advocates need to begin now to lay the foundations for transformative changes in Federal housing policy.
Universal Housing Vouchers-simple to explain, easy to implement, some changes needed but, UHV can transform the chaos of the current Federal housing policies and they can be a lynch pin for other housing policy innovations.
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) reports: "HUD’s Office of Policy Development and Research posted an article on September 5 calling for a demonstration to test providing direct assistance to renters to help cover their monthly housing costs. As HUD noted, Housing Choice Vouchers have been shown to have numerous benefits, including reducing housing instability, but some families are unable to find housing they can rent with their vouchers. Direct rental assistance might enable a higher share of recipients to use assistance successfully. The proposed demonstration would be funded by private philanthropy. Testing direct rental assistance is an important step toward creating a rental assistance program that is available to everyone who needs it, as CBPP Vice President for Housing and Income Support Peggy Bailey explained in a tweet thread. In addition to the privately funded initiative HUD called for, Congress should fund a demonstration testing the approach in sites around the country, as we discussed in an earlier memo. Congress should prioritize providing adequate funding so that the existing voucher program can continue to deliver effective assistance to millions of households around the country, but we should also be testing ways to improve rental assistance further." Lightly edited for readibility In case you're wondering...yes! This is an example of a renter tax credit program...disguised as "direct rental assistance."
Green New Deal for Assisted Housing-- Count RHINO among the skeptics, but times change. After WW2, public (social) housing became a haven for African American households and then quickly became stigmatized, paternalistic, and neglected. However GNDPH can shake off that stigma from public (social) housing and become a test bed for 21st century housing innovations.
New Homeownership Models: End of the American Dream? Tenant Opportunity to Purchase. Just cause (no cut) lease provisions. Shared Equity. Coops. Land Trusts.
February 16, 2024. Let’s Harness the Growth of the Shared-Equity Field. Between 2011 and 2022, the number of nonprofits with shared-equity programs and CLTs increased by 30 percent. Here's a look at the diversity of their programs and portfolios, and who's benefiting from their rise. A growing number of community land trusts (CLTs) and shared equity programs throughout the country are responding to the escalating affordability crisis by providing and stewarding opportunities for housing with lasting affordability. At least 314 organizations have developed an estimated over 15,000 homeownership units with lasting affordability, and nearly half of shared equity homeowners are people of color."
DECEMBER 20, 2022. NextCity. This Community-Controlled Real Estate Co-Op Is Proving Its Value. "Investors who took a chance on a unique Bay Area-real estate cooperative are now receiving their first dividend checks. They may be small, but they carry an important message. [...] The East Bay Permanent Real Estate Cooperative, or EB PREC for short, is one of a few newer community-controlled or community-owned real estate entities that have emerged over the past few years. They vary widely in legal and governance structures, as well as locations and community demographics. Next City has reported on a few of them recently, like the E.G. Woode small business real estate collective on the South Side of Chicago, or Philadelphia’s Kensington Corridor Trust, Seattle’s Cultural Space Agency, or the Commongrounds Cooperative in Traverse City, Michigan."
Local initiatives. Zoning, density, occupancy codes alt-homes, This is a two-step step
Different geographic markets need different policies
Local people will resist most national one-size fits all policies
January 2, 2023. Next City. The 22 Best Solutions of 2022, "Our editors selected our top stories of urban innovation to feature in our annual Solutions of the Year roundup."
Local Funding Sources based on bond financing, not tax abatements. Easing Zoning restrictions. What Federal policies can support local initiatives
Jul 15, 2022, MarketPlace. The U.S. housing shortage has doubled in less than a decade, report finds
SEPTEMBER 22, 2022, Next City, Housing In Brief: A Colorado Ballot Initiative Could Change How Affordable Housing Is Funded. "This November, Colorado residents will vote on a ballot referendum that would direct a small portion of state income tax to new affordable housing, The Journal Record reports. Proposition 123 would set aside 0.1% of the state’s income tax revenue to local governments with the goal of increasing affordable housing stock by 3% in each jurisdiction. It would also go to programs to help teachers, nurses and other workers secure their first home and fund eviction defense and rent supplements, The Denver Post reports. The campaign estimates the proposition would set aside $300 million a year and could lead to 170,000 new units over 20 years. That falls short of current needs – according to census data, the state had a deficit of 93,000 to 216,000 units in 2020 - but it could establish a model for funding housing going forward."
OCTOBER 6, 2022. NextCity. A Pennsylvania Program Will Provide Free Repairs – So Long As Landlords Don’t Hike Rents. "In July, Pennsylvania’s legislature passed a law that could revitalize deteriorating homes across the state. The Whole Home Repair Act sets aside $125 million for grants to low and middle-income homeowners and forgivable loans for small landlords to repair or retrofit homes, along with money for staff and workforce development for three years."
August 29, 2022. WVXU, Cincinnati's Affordable Housing Trust Fund is ready for use four years after being established.
September 6, 2022. WOSU. Voters to decide on $1.5 billion bond issue that includes money to expand affordable housing. "The City of Columbus is proposing a $1.5 billion bond issue on the November ballot that includes $200 million to expand affordable housing. It is four times more than what the city proposed in 2019. Supporters and developers said it’s a crucial step to address the demand for affordable housing. But more work needs to get done to make it happen. Two years ago, the city borrowed a lot of money to build more than 1,300 affordable housing units. At the time, before the COVI-19 pandemic, more than 50,000 people were using half their income to pay rent or make mortgage payments. Officials have said the $50 million is not enough. But they say it was a good test run."
Local energy conservation: Ending the fossil fuel housing economy--electricity is the fuel of the future for housing and Building on opportunities created by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Inside Chicago’s Effort to Protect Tenants’ Right to Cool Air
Winter heating laws have long been commonplace. With temperatures rising, new cooling rules aim to protect residents from dangerous summer heat.
JULY 25, 2022. NextCity. It’s Time to Electrify Philly’s Buildings. "Op-ed: Building electrification incentives in Philadelphia would protect our planet and our residents' health." More here.
Sunnova Submits Application to Develop First-of-its-Kind Solar "Micro-Utility" in California
Effects Of Residential Gas Appliances On Indoor And Outdoor Air Quality And Public Health In California
November 9, 2022. CityLab. At COP27, Building Emissions Loom Larger. "Cleaning up the carbon-intensive construction industry and reducing energy consumption in buildings have emerged as major topics at the UN climate summit. [...] The built environment has always played a major role in the climate crisis — a much-shared stat suggests that roughly 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions can be traced to constructing and maintaining buildings. But the building sector hasn’t commanded a commensurate amount of attention at international climate conclaves."
January 4, 2023. Shelterforce. The Shift to Using More Electricity Will Change How Affordable Housing Is Built. "The recently passed federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) accelerates the shift by providing resources to address increased costs and technical challenges. The IRA, for instance, contains billions of dollars in subsidies to address climate change, and the Biden administration’s Justice40 Initiative earmarks 40 percent of these resources to traditionally underserved communities and affordable housing. (As much as $25 billion is allocated to affordable housing and low- and moderate-income communities, to be administered through HUD, the Department of Education, and the Environmental Protection Agency, according to a recent policy brief by the National Housing Trust.)" Good news!
New Federal Housing Finance System. The Feds management of consumer inflation has proved disastrous for the housing market. Now that Fannie and Freddie are wards of the State...they can become tools for managing the housing market.
Boom and bust cycle. July 23, 2022 NYT via DNYUZ. We Need to Keep Building Houses, Even if No One Wants to Buy
07/25/22, The Hill. Why the US housing shortage is likely to get worse. "The Fed, perhaps counterintuitively, is making homes more expensive to buy now with the hopes of eventually making them cheaper. The bank has hiked interest rates aggressively since March, which drove the average fixed 30-year mortgage interest rate up to 5.5 percent in June, according to Freddie Mac."
"Why Fewer American Children are living in poverty." This NYT podcast outlines a myriad of ways in which enlightened and accidental anti-poverty programs have made a dramatic difference in the lives of poor families. The one missing piece? Universal Housing Vouchers. Rental housing is the last "free market" commodity. The FIRED industry needs regulation, not just more money, if housing is to become affordable.
Is New Housing Technology a 7th Step?